February Coffee Prices Reach Recent Highs! Economic Recovery to Halt the Strong Rise in Coffee Prices
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Vietnam and Brazil Coffee Production Decline Leads to Coffee Prices Reaching Recent Highs!
Due to rainfall during Vietnam's coffee 2020/21 harvest season resulting in lower-than-expected yields, and drought during Brazil's 2020/21 coffee flowering season, coffee prices rose by 35% at the end of the year. By February 2021, coffee prices exceeded 2020's highest levels, even reaching the highest levels since 2017.
These situations were not fully reflected in the official reports from the United States Department of Agriculture and the International Coffee Organization (ICO). According to estimates from private traders and analysts, the global coffee surplus will decrease to some extent, which aligns with recent official forecasts from the USDA and ICO.
Will Brazil Experience Frost in 2021, Causing Coffee Prices to Soar Further?
Multiple meteorological agencies have stepped forward to debunk this: this is not scientific at all!
Because recent weather problems in several coffee-producing countries are related to the La Niña phenomenon, some commodity weather analysts predict that frost will occur in Brazil during July-August this year, which would cause coffee prices to surge further.
However, according to predictions from multiple meteorological agencies tracking the La Niña phenomenon, La Niña will weaken significantly by more than 50% in the coming months, which will reduce negative weather impacts on all global crops. Regarding commodity weather analysts predicting frost events in Brazil several months in advance, meteorological authorities indicate these predictions are not scientific at all.
Economic Recovery May Pause the Strong Rise in Coffee Prices
Current coffee market prices directly reflect the global coffee supply and demand situation. As COVID-19 restrictions ease, coffee demand will inevitably rise, but this is not enough to absorb the coffee supply surplus.
The current coffee market is turbulent. If prices continue to rise without correction, this will confirm that there are significant problems in global coffee production. The current easing of COVID-19 has led to economic recovery, and this trend will only continue if coffee production cannot keep up with demand. Under current circumstances, the strong rise in coffee prices will pause.
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