February Coffee Prices Reach Recent Highs! Economic Recovery to Halt the Strong Rise in Coffee Prices

Vietnam and Brazil Coffee Production Decline Leads to Coffee Prices Reaching Recent Highs!

Rainfall during Vietnam's 2020/21 coffee harvest season produced lower-than-expected yields, and drought hit Brazil during its 2020/21 coffee flowering season, so coffee prices rose by 35% at the end of the year. By February 2021, coffee prices had exceeded 2020's highest levels and even reached the highest levels since 2017.

These situations were not fully reflected in the official reports from the United States Department of Agriculture and the International Coffee Organization (ICO). According to estimates from private traders and analysts, the global coffee surplus will shrink to some extent, which aligns with recent official forecasts from the USDA and ICO.

Will Brazil Experience Frost in 2021, Causing Coffee Prices to Soar Further?

Multiple meteorological agencies have stepped forward to debunk this: that's not scientific at all.

Because recent weather problems in several coffee-producing countries are tied to the La Niña phenomenon, some commodity weather analysts predicted that frost would occur in Brazil during July-August this year, which would send coffee prices surging further.

However, according to predictions from multiple meteorological agencies tracking La Niña, it will weaken significantly by more than 50% in the coming months, which will reduce negative weather impacts on crops worldwide. As for commodity weather analysts predicting frost events in Brazil several months in advance, meteorological authorities say these predictions are not scientific at all.

Economic Recovery May Pause the Strong Rise in Coffee Prices

Current coffee market prices directly reflect the global supply and demand situation. As COVID-19 restrictions ease, coffee demand will inevitably rise, but that is not enough to absorb the coffee supply surplus.

The coffee market is turbulent right now. If prices keep rising without correction, that will confirm there are significant problems in global coffee production. The current easing of COVID-19 has led to economic recovery, and that trend will only continue if coffee production cannot keep up with demand. Under current circumstances, the strong rise in coffee prices will pause.

FrontStreet Coffee Recommendation

Volatile futures are no reason to change what's in your cup, and Brazilian coffee remains one of the most dependable daily choices. FrontStreet Coffee's Cerrado Red Bourbon comes from Cerrado, a region known for high-quality beans, and uses the red Bourbon variety common across South America. Medium roasted, it delivers rich creamy peanut, toasted bread, caramel, and hazelnut aromas, a rounded body, no acidity, and a light bittersweet edge — comfortable in a pour over, moka pot, espresso SOE, siphon, or French press.

For a sweeter, fruitier Brazilian cup, FrontStreet Coffee's Queen Estate comes from Mogiana near Sul de Minas, where fertile red volcanic soil gives the cherries abundant nutrients and a full aroma. It's a rare yellow Bourbon, a natural mutation of red Bourbon, and cups cleaner in fruit; whether you brew it as pour over, moka pot, or on a home espresso machine, it shows a sugarcane sweetness no other region quite matches, along with fruit and chocolate notes. If you keep a home espresso setup, Brazil also anchors nearly every good blend — FrontStreet's classic house blend, its nut-forward signature blend, its balanced dark cocoa blend, and its café-oriented commercial blend all rely on Brazilian beans for chocolate and creamy aromatics, a gentle sweet-tart-bitter balance, and predictable extraction.