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Global Coffee Market May Face Supply-Demand Imbalance in 2021, Coffee Prices Unlikely to Rise Further!

Published: 2026-01-27 Author: FrontStreet Coffee
Last Updated: 2026/01/27, For professional coffee knowledge exchange and more coffee bean information, please follow Coffee Workshop (WeChat official account: cafe_style). For the global agricultural market, 2021 may see stable prices in the first half and weak prices in the second half. However, coffee will be an exception! Over the past five years, global coffee consumption has increased by approximately 2% year-on-year. The emergence of COVID-19 in 2020 and related institutional restrictions...

For professional coffee knowledge exchange and more coffee bean information, please follow Coffee Workshop (WeChat public account: cafe_style).

For the global agricultural market, 2021 may see stable prices in the first half and weak prices in the second half. But coffee will be an exception!

Over the past five years, global coffee consumption has increased by approximately 2% year-on-year. The emergence of COVID-19 in 2020 and related institutional restrictions impacted global coffee consumption. With vaccine production and rollout in 2021, along with global economic recovery, global coffee demand is expected to revive. However, the revived demand may not be sufficient to balance the supply in the coffee market.

Brazil remains the world's largest coffee producer and exporter to date. Due to the continued impact of the La Niña climate causing drought during the flowering period, Brazil's expected total coffee production in 2021 will be at its lowest level in four years. (Note: La Niña refers to the phenomenon of持续异常偏冷的海面温度 in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific. Under this influence, eastern Pacific regions (such as South America) experience drought, while western Pacific regions (such as Australia and Southeast Asia) see increased precipitation.)

Brazil's forecasting agency Conab estimates that Brazil's coffee production in 2020/21 may be less than 50 million bags, with only 43.85 million to 49.59 million bags expected, a decrease of 21%-31% compared to the same period. In addition to being affected by drought, Brazilian Arabica coffee also has reduced planting area. Brazilian Arabica coffee beans will have a two-year low-production cycle. Brazilian Arabica production in 2021 is expected to be between 30 million and 33 million bags, meaning coffee production will decrease by 35% to 40% from the previous year, reaching a ten-year low. On the other hand, Brazilian Robusta production will be around 14 million to 16 million bags, matching levels from two years ago.

Although Brazilian coffee production will decrease, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) expects global coffee production in 2020/21 to increase by 1.9% to 171.89 million bags compared to last year; global consumption will also increase by 1.3% to 166.62 million bags. Due to the impact of COVID-19, coffee harvested in 2019/20 could not be fully exported, leading to stockpiling of many coffee beans. With vaccine rollout and relaxation of COVID-19 related restrictions, all coffee will begin to be supplied in large quantities. According to a recent Reuters survey, the market expects coffee supply surplus in 2021 to reach as high as 8 million bags.

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