Brazilian Coffee: Brazil's Coffee Production Rank and the Recent Production Decline Leading to Price Increases

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Brazil's Coffee Exports Slip as Supply Chains Strain

Brazil is the world's largest coffee-producing country, yet its export volumes have been trending steadily downward.

According to the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (Cecafe), Brazil shipped 2.6 million bags (60 kg per bag) in May, a 20.3% decline year over year.

Arabica—the type favored by specialty coffee shops and premium brands—fell 16% to 2.05 million bags, while Robusta, widely used to make instant coffee, dropped 40.9% to 287,627 bags compared with the same period last year.

Cecafe also reported that exports of coffee powder, roasted coffee, and instant coffee slid 18.5% to 275,111 bags.

The Main Causes Behind the Export Decline

Two factors weighed on May exports: (1) a shortage of shipping containers and (2) limited vessel space.

At present, huge numbers of containers worldwide are stranded in Asia and the United States, creating a global shortage of available units.

A fresh outbreak of COVID-19 in southern China curbed commercial activity and forced businesses to slow down. Ports and terminals across the region faced delays, congestion, and a shortage of container supply. Some vessels waited offshore for up to a month because of the congestion, racking up enormous demurrage fees.

The Wall Street Journal reported in May 2021 that as the U.S. economy began to recover from the pandemic, consumer demand improved and companies started large-scale inventory restocking. The resulting global shipping delays squeezed vessel capacity and deepened the shortage of sea containers needed to move cargo.

Brazil's 21/22 Production Forecast

Data from the Brazilian industry consultancy Safras & Mercado shows that drought in the early months of 2021 cut Brazil's estimated 21/22 production to 56.5 million bags, an 18.8% decline from the previous season's 69.6 million bags.

All told, the 21/22 season faces severe supply constraints. Even the recovery in ending stocks from 20/21 failed to offset Brazil's smaller 2021 crop. In a sense, we expect export potential to fall 18% to 38 million bags (green beans plus instant and coffee powder). Ending stocks for 21/22 are estimated at 2.48 million bags.

Brazil Coffee Supply and Demand Balance Sheet: 21/22 Season

Given these figures, it is not hard to see why coffee prices have been climbing recently. At the market close on June 11, the spot price of Brazilian coffee reached 900 Brazilian reais per 60 kg.

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FrontStreet Coffee Recommendation

Brazilian beans are prized for their moderate acidity and the balance they strike between sweetness, bitterness, and body—qualities that make them ideal for medium roasts. If you want an easy introduction to the region, try FrontStreet Brazil Cerrado Red Bourbon, a classic single-origin lot from the well-known Cerrado growing area. Medium-roasted, it delivers rich aromas of creamy peanut, toasted bread, caramel, and hazelnut, with a round, low-acid cup and a faint bitter finish. It works equally well as pour-over, moka pot, espresso SOE, siphon, or French press.

For something rarer, FrontStreet Brazil Queen's Farm Yellow Bourbon comes from Mogiana, near South Minas, where fertile red volcanic soil feeds the fruit and builds a fuller aroma. This Yellow Bourbon—a natural mutation of Red Bourbon—shows a cleaner fruit character and, whether brewed as pour-over, moka pot, or home espresso, reveals a sugarcane-like sweetness found in few other regions, alongside fruit and chocolate notes. Brazilian beans also anchor many espresso blends: FrontStreet's Classic Blend, Premium Blend, and Black Cocoa all include Brazilian coffee, lending chocolate and cream aromas plus a soft sweet-tart-bitterness that keeps extraction stable.