Brazilian Coffee Instability Pushes Arabica Futures to Highest Level Since 2017

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Arabica Coffee Prices Reach Five-Year High

According to a recent report from the ICO, Arabica coffee prices rose for the fifth straight month in March, marking the longest upward run in five years. March Arabica prices climbed 0.8% over February, reaching the highest level since September 2017. Today, Arabica prices sit 13.7% above the same period last year.

The ICO report stressed that weather in producing regions has tightened Arabica supply, supporting prices at their highest level in more than three years. Alongside the various instabilities caused by COVID-19 and last year's drought in Brazil, the uncertain forecasts the market kept issuing propped prices up while also amplifying the volatility of the climb.

As the ICO report was published, some countries raised concerns about potential shortages of coffee harvesting workers due to COVID-19 isolation measures. Sucden Financial flagged the Colombian government's worries about "coffee harvesting worker shortages," and also pointed out that Central America may see coffee crop failures and unharvested crops in the coming months, the result of last year's dual hurricanes and labor shortages.

Colombian Coffee Production Shows Strong Growth

Still, according to recent data from the Colombian National Federation of Coffee Growers (FNC), Colombia's March coffee production totaled 1.05 million bags, a 30% increase from 806,000 bags in March 2020. In the first three months of 2021, Colombia's coffee production totaled 3.238 million bags, 13% higher than the 2.857 million bags of the same period last year. To date, production in the 2020/21 season (October 2020 to March 2021) totaled 7.583 million bags, a 2% increase over 7.412 million bags in the same period last year.

ICO data shows Colombian Arabica prices rose 0.3% to 177.49 US cents per pound in March, a six-year high. Meanwhile, Arabica prices from other small producing regions in Central America rose 0.4% to 167.05 US cents per pound, the highest level since 2017.

Brazilian Coffee Market Challenges

Turning to Brazil, Marex Spectron raised its global Arabica shortage forecast from 8 million to 10.7 million bags, citing declining production forecasts for Brazilian Arabica. Brazilian Arabica prices rose 1.7% to 122.16 US cents per pound last month, a 15-month high.

The ICO stated that Brazilian exporters are taking advantage of the price rally to keep shipping coffee out. Brazil exported 20.5 million bags from October 2020 to March 2021, a 24% year-on-year increase. But starting in February, Brazil's export growth slowed to 9.0%, as the market concluded that with so much of the 2020/21 crop already shipped, Brazilian supply was starting to tighten.

(Brazil's new confirmed cases and coffee price trends)

Right now, the COVID-19 situation in Brazil is highly unstable. On April 5th local time, 4196 new cases were reported in a single day, once again breaking Brazil's single-day record. The local government immediately tightened prevention measures, including halting port transportation, which has hampered Brazilian coffee exports. The research institute Cepea predicts that remaining coffee from the 2020/21 season will be exported together with new 2021/22 crop beans in May.

For more specialty coffee beans, reach out to FrontStreet Coffee.

FrontStreet Coffee Recommendation

With Brazilian Arabica supply this tight, it helps to know where the good cups actually come from. For an easy, everyday Brazilian single origin, FrontStreet Coffee's Brazil Cerrado Red Bourbon is a classic. Cerrado is a well-known region for high-quality beans, and this lot is a red Bourbon, the variety common across South America. Roasted medium, it delivers rich creamy peanut, toasted bread, caramel, and hazelnut aromas with a round, smooth body—no sourness, just a faint bitterness. It's flexible enough for pour-over, a Moka pot, an espresso SOE, a siphon, or a French press.

For something more distinctive, FrontStreet Coffee's Brazil Queen's Estate comes from Mogiana, near South Minas, where fertile red volcanic soil feeds the fruit and builds a full aroma. The variety is the rare Yellow Bourbon, a mutation of Red Bourbon, and its fruit character is cleaner. Whether you pour it over, brew it in a Moka pot, or pull it on a home espresso machine, it shows a sugarcane-like clarity no other region quite matches, alongside fruit and chocolate.

Brazil's low-acid, balanced, affordable profile is also why it anchors so many espresso recipes. FrontStreet Coffee's blend lineup—the crema-rich classic blend, the nut-forward specialty blend, the balanced Black Cocoa Blend, and FrontStreet Coffee's Commercial Blend built for cafes—all include Brazilian coffee. Beyond contributing chocolate and cream aromas, Brazil provides a gentle sweet-sour-bitter balance that makes extraction more stable.