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Brazilian Coffee Instability Pushes Arabica Futures to Highest Level Since 2017

Published: 2026-01-27 Author: FrontStreet Coffee

Last Updated: 2026/01/27, Professional coffee knowledge exchange for more coffee bean information, please follow Coffee Workshop (WeChat public account: cafe_style). ICO recently reported in its statement that Arabica coffee prices have risen for the fifth consecutive month in March, marking the longest upward trend in nearly five years. March Arabica prices increased by 0.8% compared to February, bringing this figure to the highest level since September 2017.

Professional Coffee Knowledge Exchange. For more coffee bean information, please follow Coffee Workshop (WeChat public account: cafe_style).

Arabica Coffee Prices Reach Five-Year High

According to a recent report from the ICO, Arabica coffee prices rose for the fifth consecutive month in March, marking the longest upward trend in five years. March Arabica prices increased by 0.8% compared to February, reaching the highest level since September 2017. Currently, Arabica prices are up 13.7% compared to the same period last year.

The ICO report emphasized that weather factors in producing regions have led to tight Arabica supply, which has supported Arabica coffee prices reaching their highest level in over three years. Due to various instabilities caused by COVID-19 and last year's drought in Brazil, uncertain forecast data frequently provided by the market has supported coffee prices while also exacerbating the volatility of the upward price trend.

As the ICO report was published, some countries expressed concerns about potential shortages of coffee harvesting workers due to COVID-19 isolation measures. Sucden Financial expressed the Colombian government's concerns about "coffee harvesting worker shortages," while also pointing out that Central America may experience coffee crop failures and unharvested crops in recent months due to last year's dual hurricanes and labor shortages.

Colombian Coffee Production Shows Strong Growth

However, according to recent data released by the Colombian National Federation of Coffee Growers (FNC), Colombia's coffee production in March totaled 1.05 million bags, a 30% increase from 806,000 bags in March 2020. In the first three months of 2021, Colombia's coffee production totaled 3.238 million bags, a 13% increase from 2.857 million bags in the same period last year. To date, Colombia's coffee production in the 2020/21 season (October 2020 to March 2021) totaled 7.583 million bags, a 2% increase from 7.412 million bags in the same period last year.

ICO data shows that Colombian Arabica coffee bean prices rose 0.3% to 177.49 US cents per pound in March, the highest level in six years. Meanwhile, Arabica coffee bean prices from other small producing regions in Central America rose 0.4% to 167.05 US cents per pound, the highest level since 2017.

Brazilian Coffee Market Challenges

Regarding Brazil, Marex Spectron raised its global Arabica coffee bean shortage forecast from 8 million to 10.7 million bags, due to declining production forecasts for Brazilian Arabica coffee beans. Brazilian Arabica coffee bean prices rose 1.7% to 122.16 US cents per pound last month, reaching a 15-month high.

The ICO stated that Brazilian exporters are currently taking advantage of this period of rising prices to continuously export coffee. Brazil exported 20.5 million bags of coffee from October 2020 to March 2021, a 24% increase year-on-year. However, starting from February this year, Brazil's coffee export growth slowed to 9.0%, as the market believes that with large amounts of coffee from the 2020/21 season already exported, Brazilian coffee supply is beginning to become difficult.

(Brazil's new confirmed cases and coffee price trends)

Currently, the COVID-19 situation in Brazil is extremely unstable! On April 5th local time, 4,196 new cases were added in a single day, once again breaking Brazil's single-day COVID-19 confirmed record. The local government immediately implemented further epidemic prevention measures, including stopping port transportation, which has hindered Brazilian coffee exports. Research institution Cepea predicts that remaining coffee from the 2020/21 season will be exported together with new 2021/22 season coffee beans in May.

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