Arabica Coffee Bean Supply Shortage - Arabica Coffee Bean Futures Prices Continue Rising
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Arabica Coffee Supply Shortage Driving Price Surge
According to Bloomberg reports, there are indications that the supply shortage of Arabica coffee beans will continue to worsen in 2021, with Arabica coffee bean futures prices currently soaring.
Citigroup analysts stated that due to declining production forecasts for Brazilian Arabica coffee beans, Marex Spectron has increased its global Arabica coffee bean shortage forecast from 8 million bags to 10.7 million bags. Additionally, frost may occur during Brazil's July-August coffee harvest season, potentially causing further losses of Arabica coffee beans. Coffee traders including Volcafe and Marex Spectron predict that by October 2021, global Arabica coffee bean supply will face even more severe shortages. Analysts believe Arabica coffee beans will face serious deficit threats in the upcoming marketing year.
As COVID-19 vaccines become widespread and economies reopen, it is precisely at this time that all coffee supplies are experiencing problems. According to industry association estimates, for every 1% increase in global economic growth, demand for coffee beans increases by 1 million bags (60 kg/bag). The International Monetary Fund stated on Tuesday that the global economy is expected to grow by 6% this year, the largest increase in 40 years.
In New York, May Arabica coffee futures rose 4.1% to $1.2715 per pound, marking the largest increase since February 22nd. This also represents the biggest gain among crude oil, cotton, sugar, and cocoa price increases in the Bloomberg Commodity Index.
Last month, Arabica coffee prices had fallen 10% due to concerns about the pace of global economic recovery. Citigroup analysts stated that agricultural commodity prices appear likely to perform well through 2022 starting from April, and this rebound will be a turning point for the coffee market.
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