Will Global Warming-Induced Temperature Rise Affect the Production and Quality of Colombian Coffee Beans?

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Climate Change Challenges for Colombian Coffee Production

With global warming, Colombia, as the world's third-largest coffee producer, will face challenges from climate change. Research from the University of Illinois indicates that "low-altitude areas" in Colombia may become unsuitable for coffee cultivation.

Coffee is widely cultivated in Colombia, with 550,000 families directly relying on coffee production for their livelihoods, while many more families depend indirectly on coffee production. Due to climate change, temperatures will continue to rise in the future, causing coffee growers to worry about Colombia's coffee production in the coming decades.

Coffee trees are extremely sensitive to temperature changes. Research estimates that when temperatures rise by 2°C, the loss rates of coffee production in Mexico and Brazil could reach as high as 34% and 20%, respectively. For Colombia, if temperatures rise by no more than 2°C, coffee production will increase by 4% to 24%, but this growth will only occur in areas above 1,500 meters altitude. (Note: The high-altitude areas mentioned below refer to regions above 1,500 meters, while low-altitude areas refer to regions below 1,500 meters)

Research on Colombia's Unique Geography

Sandy Dall'Erba, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) at the University of Illinois, stated that Colombia is a major coffee-producing country with a very unique geographical environment. The Andes Mountains run through the entire country from southwest to northeast. Currently, coffee is cultivated at different altitudes throughout the country, but due to the impacts of climate change, the production situation in low and high-altitude areas will vary significantly.

Sandy Dall'Erba and her research team analyzed the climate and coffee production conditions throughout Colombia. They collaborated with 521 coffee plantations in Colombia, where they continuously registered production data of at least one hectare of Arabica coffee from 2007 to 2013, evaluating the impact of temperature and precipitation on Colombia's coffee production. Subsequently, the laboratory predicted weather conditions in Colombia from 2042-2061 and future coffee production in each region.

Future Predictions and Impacts

Prediction data shows that by 2061, Colombia's national coffee production rate will increase by 7.6%. However, this prediction encompasses significant spatial variations, ranging from a 16% increase in high-altitude areas to an 8.1% decrease in low-altitude areas. Researchers found that rising temperatures greatly benefit coffee in high-altitude areas, as the increased temperatures make high-altitude climates more suitable for coffee cultivation. In contrast, low-altitude areas will only become hotter and drier, which is extremely unfavorable for coffee tree cultivation.

Socioeconomic Implications

Fortunately, Colombia's specialty coffee is mainly concentrated in areas above 1,500 meters, which is good news for growers in high-altitude regions. However, the families mentioned above that directly depend on coffee production for their livelihoods are mainly concentrated in production areas below 1,500 meters. For them, although they could try to move to higher altitudes to continue cultivation, the costs would be extremely expensive. For growers in low-altitude areas, they may not be able to afford the funds for migration. If rising temperatures in the future truly affect coffee cultivation in low-altitude areas, they might abandon coffee trees and choose to grow other crops. Whether Colombia's coffee production will really be as optimistic in the coming decades remains uncertain, after all, no one can say for sure how the climate will change.

Finally, as always: "Protecting the environment is everyone's responsibility."

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