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Brazilian Coffee Production Decline & Central American Hurricane Crop Failure: Arabica Coffee Beans May Face Further Shortage

Published: 2026-01-28 Author: FrontStreet Coffee
Last Updated: 2026/01/28, Professional coffee knowledge exchange. For more coffee bean information, please follow Coffee Workshop (WeChat public account: cafe_style). Originally affected by Brazil's drought last year and this year's low coffee production cycle, the reduction of Arabica coffee beans in Brazil's 2021/22 production season has caused turbulence throughout the entire Arabica coffee industry. Subsequently, the severe weather in Colombia also threatens Colombian Arabica

For professional coffee knowledge exchange and more coffee bean information, please follow the Coffee Workshop (WeChat Official Account: cafe_style).

Originally, due to last year's drought in Brazil and the impact of this year's small coffee production cycle, the reduced production of Brazilian Arabica coffee beans in the 2021/22 season had caused volatility throughout the entire Arabica coffee industry. Subsequently, heavy rainfall in Colombia also threatened the production of Colombian Arabica coffee beans. As one issue subsided, another arose – the Suez Canal blockage on March 23 once again brought cost increases to the coffee industry.

Suez Canal Blockage Impact on Coffee Industry

With the rollout of COVID-19 vaccinations, people are gradually resuming outdoor consumption, but precisely at this time, all coffee supplies have encountered problems. The tense situation in the Arabica coffee market will further exacerbate the already rising food inflation.

According to Bloomberg reports, the New York futures market has risen by 22% since the end of October last year. Recently, Marex Spectron increased its global coffee shortage forecast from 8 million bags to 10.7 million bags. The main reasons include: the impact of last year's drought in Brazil, potential frost during Brazil's July-August 2021 harvest season which could lead to further crop failures, a smaller portion attributed to crop failures in other small coffee-growing countries in Central America due to last year's hurricanes, and the current heavy rainfall in Colombia which may worsen the shortage of Arabica coffee bean supplies.

Coffee Market Shortage Analysis

According to the senior meteorologist at Maxar Technologies Inc. on March 29: in the past two months, La Niña weather has brought rainfall three times the average level to Colombia's growing regions, with rainfall continuing for the next two weeks. The National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia also stated that the impact of La Niña is particularly severe, as rainfall has accelerated the spread of the long-existing leaf rust fungus. Additionally, 15% of coffee varieties in Colombia are low-resistance coffee varieties. Leaf rust has already caused billions of dollars in losses to Colombian coffee growers.

Colombia Coffee Rust Disease Impact

According to predictions from the National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia, the production of Colombian Arabica coffee beans in the first half of this year will decrease by approximately 500,000 bags (60kg/bag) compared to the same period last year, dropping to 6 million bags, while the second half's production will depend on whether weather conditions improve during the main crop harvest. Currently, Colombian Arabica washed coffee beans are priced at $216 per bag (125kg/bag), an increase of $12.34 per bag compared to last week's price.

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