Global Arabica Coffee Bean Shortage Drives Colombian Coffee Spot Prices to Ten-Year High

For more professional coffee knowledge and coffee bean information, follow Coffee Workshop (WeChat official account: cafe_style).

Colombian Coffee Production Faces Challenges

The Colombian Coffee Growers Federation (FNC) recently reported that government social-isolation policies have created a shortage of harvesting labor on coffee estates and in growing areas. Combined with heavy rainfall that has now persisted for two months, this points to reduced Colombian coffee bean production in the first half of 2021.

According to local meteorological departments, from March 1 to March 31, coffee-producing areas in central and southern Colombia saw heavy rainfall, with cumulative precipitation reaching 300 millimeters - nearly 100 millimeters above the historical average for the same period. Colombia's specialty coffee beans are concentrated mainly in the south, and familiar producing areas such as Huila, Cauca, Nariño, and Tolima all sit at altitudes above 1,500 meters in southern Colombia.

(Left: Colombia rainfall in March 2021, right: Colombia rainfall in March 2020)

In mid-February, the FNC forecast Colombia's coffee production for the first half of 2021 at between 5.5 and 6.5 million bags (60 kg per bag), a 6.9% decrease from the same period in 2020. The federation also indicated that COVID-19 isolation policies and heavy rainfall would ease in the second half of 2021, and predicted that production in the latter half of the year, as well as total production, would gradually return to normal levels. In 2020, Colombia's total coffee bean production was 13.90 million bags, 6% less than the previous year. For 2021, the country aims to keep total coffee bean production comparable to last year.

Since last year, Colombia's coffee spot prices have stayed strong, lifted by the depreciation of the Colombian peso and by premium levels rising from 20 cents per pound to 45-50 cents per pound. On top of that, Brazil's Arabica production forecasts have kept falling for a range of reasons. Coffee futures have climbed 22% since last October's low, and spot price premiums for Latin American washed coffee beans continue to rise. Colombia's spot price premiums have even reached their highest levels in nearly a decade.

(Top: Colombian coffee spot price trends; bottom: international coffee futures price trends)

FrontStreet Coffee Recommendation

Colombian coffee is prized for its versatility - it works equally well as an espresso blend component or as a pour-over single origin, and it spans fruit-acid-forward, full-bodied, and aroma-driven styles. To understand the country's flagship southern region, start with FrontStreet's Colombia Huila. Grown above 1,500 meters in the mountains of Huila, where Colombia's most important rivers converge and bring abundant water and humidity, these washed beans are given a medium-dark roast that highlights dark chocolate and nutty sweetness, moderate crema, and a full body. It suits pour-over and French press, and it also shines pulled through a moka pot or an espresso machine for Americanos and lattes.

If you want to see how far Colombian coffee has moved beyond the traditional washed method, try FrontStreet's Colombia Frontera Estate Sidra. Anaerobic fermentation - sometimes called carbonic maceration - uses a pressure-resistant stainless steel tank in which temperature, time, pH, and other variables can be controlled, and the most famous expressions are anaerobic natural and anaerobic washed. This Sidra is processed as an anaerobic natural, converting the cherries into richer tropical-fruit aromatics. Roasted medium-light, it delivers complex layers of passion fruit, grape, apricot, and candied fruit whether you brew it as pour-over, cold brew, drip bag, or moka pot.