Brazil Specialty Coffee Region Updates: Reduced Brazilian Coffee Production Stimulates Arabica Coffee Price Increase

Arabica Coffee Prices Hit a 14-Month High

Arabica coffee prices reached their highest point in 14 months at the end of February this year. Although prices eased in late February and early March, they still remained above pre-COVID-19 levels.

Dr. Michaela Helby-Kuhl, agricultural analyst at Commercial Bank Research, noted: "Because of COVID-19's impact on out-of-home coffee consumption and Brazil's record-high coffee production in 2020, the average monthly price of Arabica coffee beans had been holding around $1.00 per pound."

Until mid-February 2021, the International Coffee Organization's composite price index continued its upward climb. In February 2021, the average price of Arabica coffee beans reached $1.19 per pound — the highest since October 2017, when it stood at $1.20 per pound.

What Is Driving the Price Surge?

Analysts believe that beyond the boost to consumption from COVID-19 vaccinations and fiscal stimulus plans, as well as the ongoing shortage and high cost of shipping containers for coffee and other goods, the surge in Arabica prices is largely being driven by forecasts that Brazil's 2021/22 crop will come in smaller. Last year's dry weather and the biennial low-yield cycle of the coffee tree both point in the same direction, and the expectation of a reduced Brazilian Arabica crop for 2021/22 is what has propelled prices upward.

Brazil's Production Forecast

Brazil's forecasting agency Conab estimates the country's coffee production in the 2021/22 season could fall below 50 million bags, with forecasts ranging from 43.85 million to 49.59 million bags — a decrease of 21% to 31% year on year. Brazilian Arabica production for 2021/22 is estimated at between 30 million and 33 million bags, a drop of 35% to 40% and a ten-year low.

Within that, Minas Gerais — Brazil's most renowned specialty coffee region — is expected to see a 20.7% production reduction in the 2021/22 season due to last year's adverse weather. Combined with the low-yield cycle, Emater-MG (the Technical Assistance and Rural Extension Company of Minas Gerais) and the Agriculture and Livestock Federation of Minas Gerais indicate that the region's total coffee production could fall by as much as 42%.

FrontStreet Coffee Recommendation

With Brazilian Arabica prices climbing, it is a good moment to revisit why Brazil remains a cornerstone of quality coffee. Brazilian beans bring moderate acidity and an excellent balance of sweetness, bitterness, and body, which makes them a natural fit for medium roasting and a lovely nutty aromatics. If you simply want a taste of the region, FrontStreet Pulped Natural Cerrado is a classic single-origin Brazilian coffee: a Red Bourbon lot from the celebrated Cerrado growing area, showing rich notes of creamed peanut, toasted bread, caramel, and hazelnut, with a round, non-acidic body and a light bitterness. It works for pour-over as well as moka pot, espresso SOE, siphon, and French press.

For something rarer, FrontStreet Queen Estate coffee comes from the Mogiana region near southern Minas Gerais, where fertile red volcanic soil builds exceptionally full aromatics. The variety is Yellow Bourbon, a natural mutation of Red Bourbon with a cleaner fruit character, revealing a sugarcane sweetness you will not find in other origins, along with fruit and chocolate notes. Brazil also anchors all of our espresso blends — from the low-acid Classic Blend and the nutty Premium Blend to FrontStreet Coffee's Black Cocoa Blend — where Brazilian beans supply chocolate and cream aromatics plus a soft, balanced sweetness-bitterness profile that aids extraction stability.