Brazil Specialty Coffee Region Updates: Reduced Brazilian Coffee Production Stimulates Arabica Coffee Price Increase
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Arabica Coffee Prices Reach 14-Month High
Arabica coffee prices reached their highest point in 14 months at the end of February this year. Although prices declined at the end of February and early March, they still exceeded pre-COVID-19 levels.
Dr. Michaela Helby-Kuhl, Agricultural Analyst at Commercial Bank Research, stated: "Due to COVID-19's impact on out-of-home coffee consumption and Brazil's record-high coffee production in 2020, the average monthly price of Arabica coffee beans has remained around $1.00 per pound."
Until mid-February 2021, the International Coffee Organization's composite coffee price index continued its upward trend. In February 2021, the average price of Arabica coffee beans reached $1.19 per pound, becoming the highest price since October 2017 when it reached $1.20 per pound.
Factors Behind the Price Surge
Analysts believe that beyond the positive impact of COVID-19 vaccination and fiscal stimulus plans on consumption, as well as the continued shortage and high cost of shipping containers used to transport coffee and other products, the surge in Arabica coffee prices is likely driven by predictions that Brazil's 2021/22 coffee season will see reduced production due to last year's dry season effects and entering the biennial low-yield cycle. The forecast of reduced Arabica coffee bean production in Brazil for the 2021/22 season has propelled the price surge.
Brazil's Production Forecast
Brazil's forecasting agency Conab estimates that Brazil's coffee production in the 2021/22 season could be less than 50 million bags, with forecasts ranging from 43.85 million to 49.59 million bags, a 21%-31% decrease compared to the same period. The 2021/22 Brazilian Arabica coffee production is estimated between 30 million and 33 million bags, a 35% to 40% reduction compared to the same period, marking a ten-year low.
Among these, Brazil's renowned specialty coffee producing region, Minas Gerais, will see a 20.7% production reduction in the 2021/22 season due to last year's adverse weather conditions. Coupled with this being a low-yield cycle, Emater-MG (Technical Assistance and Rural Extension Company of Minas Gerais) and the Agriculture and Livestock Federation of Minas Gerais indicate that the total coffee production reduction in this region for the 2021/22 season could reach as high as 42%.
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