Colombian Coffee What Impact Will Global Climate Change Have on the Colombian Coffee Industry

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Climate Change Impact on Colombian Coffee Production

According to a new study on Colombia, if current conditions and practices remain unchanged and continue, Arabica coffee growing areas will undergo significant changes by mid-century due to global climate warming.

In the journal Agricultural Systems last month, a study published by researchers from the University of Illinois included six years of climate data and coffee production data up to 2013, analyzing the impact of temperature and precipitation on yields in 521 coffee-producing regions across Colombia.

Researchers also forecasted and modeled climate for 2042-2061 to predict the growing locations and expected yields of coffee-producing areas throughout Colombia.

"Overall, the data shows that Colombia's coffee will not experience yield reduction," said Federico Ceballos-Sierra, the study's first author who owns a coffee farm in the Tolima region. "However, when we look more deeply at the impacts on these producing regions, we can see that many differences are overlooked at the national level. Those details have very important implications for coffee growers living in different regions."

Comparative Research and Industry Implications

This Colombian study was published just days after a similar forecast study on Ethiopia's coffee industry was released. Both studies follow a landmark 2015 study commissioned by the nonprofit organization World Coffee Research that is frequently cited, which introduced from a broader perspective how different climate zones might reshape coffee cultivation in the coming years.

These studies share a common point: if climate and production models proceed as expected, the consequences for some existing cooperatives and even coffee-growing regions could be alarming.

According to researchers' estimates, by 2061, due to global warming causing continuously rising temperatures, making high-altitude areas have more favorable growing conditions, Colombia's total production might increase by 7.6%. However, for higher-altitude areas, the impact of temperature increases on their yields might be minimal.

Challenges and Adaptation Requirements

However, achieving the aforementioned yield growth would require further investment in infrastructure, not to mention enabling coffee farmers to migrate due to climate change—an unreasonable proposition for the country's 550,000 coffee farm owners.

Researchers found that for some of the 521 producing regions, ensuring Arabica coffee crop production requires policies adapted to climate change.

"Considering current conditions and regulations, our study presents what will happen from 20 to 40 years from now. Future research can start from different adaptation strategies and their costs, and evaluate to find the best options. Without adjustments, the prospects for this industry 40 years from our focus might be even dimmer.

Higher altitude areas will not be able to further develop their production. Indeed, no mountain peaks in Colombia exceed 5800 meters (18,000 feet)," wrote Sandy Dall'Erba, a professor at the University of Illinois and co-author of the study.

Research Publication and Additional Resources

The paper titled "The effect of climate variability on Colombian coffee productivity: A dynamic panel model approach" can be found in ScienceDirect.

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