Will Brazil's Coffee Production Reduction in 2021 Affect the Global Coffee Supply Chain?
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According to the latest news released by Brazilian consulting agency Safras: Brazilian coffee regions received sufficient rainfall in early March, which means that Brazilian coffee regions will not experience drought this year. However, Minas Gerais, the main Arabica coffee production area, suffered from the "aftermath" of last year's drought. It is expected that Arabica coffee production in the 2021/22 season will decrease by 17% compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, the drought had little impact on Brazil's main Robusta production areas of Espírito Santo, São Paulo, and Rondônia. It is expected that Brazil's Robusta coffee production in the 2021/22 season will increase by 18% compared to the same period last year.
Safras also stated: Brazil, as the world's largest coffee producer and exporter, if the final production of Brazilian Arabica coffee in the 2021/22 season falls below 60 million bags, this will not only affect Brazil's domestic coffee supply chain but also have adverse effects on the global coffee supply chain.
Due to the impact of COVID-19, Brazil's domestic coffee consumption in 2020 increased by 1.4% compared to 2019, reaching 21.2 million bags. Among these, instant coffee grew by 3.18% to 943,000 bags, while fresh-ground coffee increased by 1.26% to 20.26 million bags. Based on Brazil's domestic coffee consumption in 2020 and the ongoing COVID-19 situation, if Brazilian coffee bean production decreases in the 2021/22 season, after supplying the domestic market, the remaining total volume of coffee beans will be far from sufficient to supply global coffee traders. Therefore, the price of Brazilian Arabica coffee beans is expected to continuously rise.
According to Safras' monthly survey: As of March 9, 2021, Brazilian coffee farmers had sold 87% of the new 2020/21 season coffee beans, an increase of 4% from the previous month. The market maintains stable sales flow, showing a balanced state compared to the same period last year. Among these, Arabica coffee sales accounted for 86% of expected production, higher than 85% in the same period last year and the historical average of 84%; while Brazilian Robusta coffee sales accounted for 91% of expected production, higher than 90% in the same period last year and the historical average of 88%.
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