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African Coffee Consumption Surge: New Opportunities and Challenges

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African coffee consumption is experiencing significant growth, with countries like Kenya and Uganda establishing their own coffee cultures, becoming new frontiers for coffee, but also facing new challenges of self-sufficiency.

While local and international coffee roasters are now looking at the growth potential, the question is whether the continent can grow enough coffee to satisfy its own consumers.

From Export-Oriented to Domestic Consumption

On the African continent, coffee beans have long been cultivated as cash crops, but mostly for export, with domestic demand historically being very low. In Kenya and Uganda, people often prefer drinking cheaper tea. However, according to data from consumer research firm Euromonitor, between 2009 and 2014, coffee demand within Africa increased by 20%. David Barry, a commodity trader in Uganda, commented on this result, stating that the growth in domestic coffee consumption and the establishment of coffee culture are extremely beneficial for producing countries, and moreover, "farmers can gain better understanding of quality."

Domestic Market as a Buffer Against Price Volatility

A strong domestic market can protect coffee-producing countries from the impact of international price fluctuations and demand volatility. In recent years, coffee prices have been on a roller coaster due to production changes in Brazil, the world's largest producer. The price of Arabica coffee beans, which the country primarily produces, rose to $2.29 per pound last year but fell to $1.16 by September this year.

Kenya's 46% Consumption Surge in Five Years

Roberio Oliveira Silva, Executive Director of the International Coffee Organization (ICO), points out that in countries such as Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Kenya, and Uganda, coffee consumption has increased in recent years due to the rise of the urban middle class. According to the Kenya Coffee Traders Association, the country's coffee consumption surged by 46% between 2010 and 2014.

Uganda has also seen significant growth in coffee demand. Martin Maraka, Planning Manager at the African Fine Coffee Association, says, "More people can now afford coffee, and sales have increased accordingly." Additionally, doctors have debunked myths about the health effects of drinking coffee. Maraka notes, "Ten years ago, there were no coffee shops in Kampala, the capital of Uganda. Now there are 30 to 40, all serving premium coffee."

Room for Growth Compared to Global Leaders

Despite this, coffee consumption in African countries remains low compared to Italy and Brazil. According to ICO estimates, Italians drink an average of 5.8 kg of coffee per person annually, Brazilians 6.2 kg, while in Africa, Ethiopians drink only 2.5 kg per person annually, Malagasy 1.28 kg, and Ivorians 0.8 kg.

The Self-Sufficiency Challenge

The potential of African coffee consumption has attracted the attention of both local and international coffee merchants, but the question remains: can the African continent be self-sufficient in coffee?

African-grown coffee beans are renowned for their fruity flavors and complex notes. Between 1965 and 1988, eight African countries ranked among the world's top 20 coffee-producing nations, but now only four remain in the top 20. African coffee beans are among the most exquisite varieties in the world, but except for Uganda and Ethiopia, other coffee-producing countries have seen significant declines in production.

Productivity Gap

ICO research data indicates that the key lies in production efficiency. Ethiopia can produce 13 bags of 60 kg coffee beans per hectare annually, Uganda 12 bags, which pales in comparison to Brazil's 50-60 bags and Vietnam's nearly 40 bags.

Threats to Production: Decreasing Agricultural Land

Another challenge facing African producing countries is rapid urbanization and increasing land values. Affected by surging domestic real estate demand and drastic fluctuations in international coffee prices, many producers have sold their agricultural land. In Kiambu, a city northeast of Nairobi, the capital of Kenya, Belgian coffee company Socfinaf sold 13,500 hectares of local farmland to construction companies, of which nearly 2,000 hectares were used for housing construction that can accommodate 80,000 households.

Optimistic Outlook

Despite facing these challenges, experts remain optimistic about African coffee production. They believe that as long as small-scale farmers improve their professional knowledge of cultivation and processing, production can increase tenfold. Barry points out that Uganda's goal of increasing production by an additional 2 bags per hectare annually is feasible in the future.

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