Changes in Ethiopian Coffee Growing Regions | Price of Ethiopian Coffee Beans per Half Pound

Most of the coffee we drink today is made from Arabica beans. Ethiopia is not only an important growing region for Arabica but also Africa's largest Arabica producer. Some 15 million people there depend on coffee for their livelihood, making it a vital pillar of the economy.

Climate change, however, is putting pressure on the industry, in the form of rising temperatures and reduced rainfall. According to NPR, spring and summer rainfall in some parts of Ethiopia has already dropped by 15% to 20% compared with the 1970s. In the southwestern Gore region, rainfall has fallen by 40 inches compared with the 1950s. Drought is becoming more common, which affects the harvest.

According to the journal Natural Plants, climate change could cut Ethiopia's coffee production by 39% to 59%. Aaron Davis, a scientist at the Royal Botanic Gardens in London, said, "Climate change hits Ethiopia's coffee farmers first and hardest." Many farmers, he noted, have already told him about falling yields.

In 2015, while in Ethiopia, Davis saw the impact of drought for himself. "When we arrived, a large area of coffee farmland was completely dead," he said. Since 1910, coffee production in the Harar region had been consistently high, "but now it seems to have reached a critical point."

Potential Solutions

Are there solutions? Some suggest that farmers could relocate their crops. Today, Ethiopia's coffee trees mostly grow at altitudes between 1,200 and 2,200 meters. With the current problems, perhaps they could be moved higher. Even with the climate challenges, if relocation were possible alongside supporting measures, there might still be potential to expand cultivation.

Easier said than done, though.

"It's simple on paper, just move the crops uphill," Davis said. "But this takes significant effort, resources and manpower." Most Ethiopian farmers do not have those resources.

Local coffee expert Wondyifraw Tefera believes Ethiopia's coffee-growing regions will still shrink. Although the trees are being pushed to higher altitudes, that cannot fully compensate for the lost growing areas.

At least Ethiopia has this option. Peter Laderach, a scientist at the Vietnam Tropical Agriculture Center, points out that not every coffee-producing country can move its trees uphill. "Globally, the land suitable for growing coffee will shrink in the future," he said. Beyond climate, he notes, pests and disease must also be considered.

Farmers' Livelihood Challenges

Whether we have coffee to drink is one thing; how local farmers survive is another. Davis, Tefera and Laderach all believe farmers should switch to other crops.

In fact, some already have. Many have turned to growing khat, a profitable, drought-resistant crop native to East Africa whose leaves can be made into a drug. Compared with coffee, khat brings three to four times the profit.

Some farmers have switched to corn, but because coffee trees originally grew in the shade of larger trees, growing corn requires clearing those trees, which in turn causes environmental problems such as deforestation and soil erosion.

Perhaps a better option is to transplant coffee trees into high-altitude areas that are currently deforested, and to plant larger trees alongside them. This could increase forest cover while also helping local farmers earn a living.

Conclusion

The problem of climate affecting crop growth is nothing new, and coffee is not the only victim. Although the accompanying problems may seem far in the future, they can only be solved by starting to make changes now.

Ethiopian Coffee Brand Recommendation

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FrontStreet Coffee Recommendation

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