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Analysis of China's Coffee Industry Status and Investment Prospects in 2023: Is Opening a Coffee Shop Profitable?

Published: 2026-01-27 Author: FrontStreet Coffee

Last Updated: 2026/01/27, I. An Expanding Consumer Market Over the past decade, coffee shops have mushroomed on the streets of major cities across China, especially with the entry of several large enterprise groups such as Starbucks and UCC Island, creating a lively scene in the market. We can observe that the coffee consumer base is gradually growing, and coffee culture

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The Post-Holiday Coffee Shop Boom

After this year's Spring Festival, topics suggesting "coffee shop demand will continue to grow" have been overwhelming.

"Coffee shop daily revenue of 20,000" "Young people returning home for Spring Festival crowd coffee shops" "Coffee takeout orders soaring," Meituan sells 1.2 million cups in a day"...

From after Spring Festival until now, whether in backend search messages or daily conversations, I've noticed that amidst these enticing data points, more and more friends want to venture into coffee shop entrepreneurship.

Many friends actually didn't just develop the idea of opening a coffee shop recently; many had such thoughts during the pandemic period. However, various unstable factors caused concerns and hesitations, so execution was delayed. Then after seeing gradual stabilization and increased demand after Spring Festival, they revisited this idea, believing that opening a coffee shop now should be much easier.

Is Coffee Shop Business Really That Promising?

Is today's coffee shop business really as impressive as it seems?

Undeniably, many coffee shops saw significant business improvements after Spring Festival, and takeout demand has indeed increased. But one thing we need to note is that these shops all experienced the downturn during the pandemic period, so their business volume shows marked improvement by comparison.

However, many friends only see the "good business" data without paying more attention to the actual market situation and regional customer groups. Before having clear goals and plans, they rush to join, only to be hit by reality after opening their shops.

Additionally, high-volume coffee shops all have prerequisites, such as locations with very high foot traffic, or occasional periods with extremely high customer numbers, or represent rare extreme cases. However, most coffee shops rarely achieve such extreme conditions. Especially for newly opened coffee shops without a stable customer base and reputation yet, it's almost difficult to reach such levels. Generally, for shops that have been open for some time with a certain customer base, achieving 2k in daily regular revenue is already considered impressive, while 4k-5k can be considered the ceiling.

Therefore, those social media promotions claiming 8k or 20k daily revenue... let's just take them as entertainment. We really shouldn't think that just by opening a shop, we can earn that much.

Is Now the Right Time to Open a Coffee Shop?

Regardless of when, the prerequisite for a good opportunity is meeting objective personal conditions. The most important things for opening a coffee shop are having clear positioning, a defined target customer group, and sufficient operating funds (in addition to essential costs like decoration and equipment, you also need to prepare funds for the operational period, for materials, rent, labor, etc.).

At the same time, don't just join price wars just because you see many coffee shops doing so. Engaging in price wars without strong financial backing behind you is invisibly pushing yourself into an abyss.

The beginning of a new shop's establishment will inevitably have an awkward period. Only by making clear plans before opening can you shorten this awkward period and enter the profit-making stage.

If from the start, your shop's style and positioning cannot attract the main customer groups around the area, forcing it to continue will only lead to greater losses. For example, opening a very fashionable coffee shop with cutting-edge products in an area surrounded by residential buildings; or opening a very low-key, simply decorated shop that only sells pour-over coffee products on a bustling main street.

Things to Understand Before Opening a Coffee Shop

Nowadays, regardless of what business we start, we cannot let passion come before all practical considerations.

If you yourself know nothing about coffee, then it's recommended that everyone first learn through reliable coffee training institutions before considering opening a shop. If you only hope to hire someone to manage after opening or invest funds as a partner without participating in management, you'll be the only one at a loss, like pouring your hard-earned money directly into the ocean.

Only when you understand the true current situation of the coffee market, comprehend what's needed for coffee shop operation, and know how to make coffee products can you determine your target users, product positioning, shop positioning, and determine your promotional direction (note, this determination order cannot be confused~)