Leaf Rust Disease Sweeps Through Central American Coffee Plantations

The International Coffee Organization recently released a report indicating that coffee crops in Central America decreased by approximately 15% during the 2012-2013 season due to leaf rust disease. As overall economic growth slows in the Central American region, coffee growers in the area will face the dual impact of reduced coffee crop yields and plummeting coffee prices, with Central American countries also suffering severe economic consequences as a result. With the gradual decline of Central American coffee crops' share in the international coffee market, coffee traders have begun seeking new sources in Brazil, China, East Africa, Vietnam, and other regions. However, experts point out that the supply of high-quality coffee on the international market will continue to be affected for a considerable time.

Employment Affected, Economic Losses Reach $600 Million

Peru's official media outlet Andina News Agency published an article on July 21 stating that Peruvian Agriculture Minister Von Aese indicated that due to leaf rust disease, Peru's coffee production in 2013 is expected to decrease by 30% year-on-year. Peru is not the only country in Latin America affected by leaf rust disease; coffee crops in most Central American countries have also suffered tremendous damage from leaf rust, with approximately 70% of crops affected in Guatemala, 32.8% in Honduras, and 32% in Nicaragua.

The recent report from the International Coffee Organization also indicates that due to leaf rust disease, Central American coffee crops decreased by approximately 15% during the 2012-2013 season. Most coffee traders believe that this type of leaf rust will have an even more significant impact on coffee crops during the 2013-2014 season.

The impact extends beyond coffee production. Since most employment in the region is driven by coffee cultivation, with over 2 million people employed in the coffee industry, the severe reduction in coffee production has directly led to a sharp decline in employment rates. Data released by the International Coffee Organization shows that due to leaf rust disease, 440,000 people lost their jobs during the 2012-2013 season, and this number is expected to continue increasing during the 2013-2014 season.

Leaf rust disease causes leaves to dry and turn black by parasitizing fungi on coffee tree leaves. This pathogen first broke out on a large scale in 1976, with this outbreak being the most severe to date. The head of the International Coffee Organization, Silva, stated in a media interview that "this is a regional disaster" and a fatal blow to the economies of Central American countries. According to data released by the Inter-American Development Bank, the economic losses caused by this leaf rust outbreak amount to as much as $600 million.

Limited Treatment Effectiveness, Disease Spreads to High-Altitude Areas

Laércio, a coffee research expert from the Brazilian Agricultural Research Institute, stated in an interview with our reporter that the outbreak of this type of leaf rust is mainly attributed to several factors: first, the coffee varieties grown in Central America are highly susceptible to this type of pathogen, and due to large cultivation areas, disease transmission and spread are more rapid; second, large quantities of this type of leaf rust pathogen have had the opportunity to contact these coffee plantations; third, the large-scale outbreak of leaf rust in Central America is related to climate change in the region. In recent years, the region has experienced frequent high temperatures and rainfall, with hot and humid weather becoming breeding grounds for fungal reproduction. This leaf rust outbreak also differs from previous ones, beginning to appear in higher altitude areas where such diseases have never occurred before.

Laércio pointed out that although combating leaf rust disease is enormously costly and time-consuming, as long as Central American countries properly learn from the experiences of countries like Brazil and Colombia and adopt appropriate measures, this problem can definitely be resolved as soon as possible. According to his introduction, in the 1970s, Colombia's coffee industry was devastated by leaf rust disease, but later with national support, the National Coffee Federation invested $1.4 billion to address this issue, eventually developing multiple coffee varieties resistant to leaf rust and teaching coffee growers relevant fertilization and cultivation experience, basically solving the leaf rust problem. Additionally, Laércio suggested that Central American countries can spray specific chemical sprays to prevent and control leaf rust disease based on the different degrees of infection in coffee plantations.

However, due to the limited financial resources of Central American governments and the fact that most growers are small-scale farmers lacking sufficient personal financial resources, the treatment effectiveness for leaf rust disease is not significant. Most coffee growers can only uproot infected coffee crops and replant, while new coffee crops will only be able to produce coffee beans after at least 3 years. Instant coffee

Changing Market Share, Brazilian Coffee Exports Gains Opportunity

Central America has long been renowned worldwide for its high-quality Arabica coffee beans, with Mexico and Central America supplying approximately one-fifth of the world's total Arabica coffee beans. Arabica coffee beans are also used by coffee retailers like Starbucks to make espresso, cappuccino, and other coffee beverages.

Natália Fernandes, Technical Director of the Brazilian Agriculture and Livestock Federation, stated in an interview with our reporter that in the past, due to their enormous market share, Central American coffee bean prices determined market prices. Therefore, even with large-scale outbreaks of leaf rust disease, the supply contraction in the coffee bean market driving up coffee bean prices would not bring significant losses to coffee growers in the region. However, this situation is different. With the overall slowdown of economic growth in Central America, coffee growers will face the dual impact of reduced coffee crop yields and plummeting coffee prices.

As the share of Central American coffee crops in the international coffee market declines, coffee traders have begun seeking new sources in Brazil, China, East Africa, Vietnam, and other regions. Among these, Brazil, the world's largest coffee-producing country, undoubtedly holds an absolute advantage, and its coffee crops have had bumper harvests for the second consecutive year. Fernandes believes that the poor coffee harvests in Central American countries undoubtedly create excellent opportunities for Brazilian coffee exports. Given that Central American countries have been severely affected by leaf rust disease this time, the supply of high-quality coffee on the international market will continue to be affected for a long time.

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