More People Need Coffee to Survive, But Coffee Shops Are on the Brink

"There used to be a certain cachet in walking into a coffee shop." A friend brought this up recently.

"Back before specialty coffee took off in China—not that long ago, before 2015—going to a coffee shop was almost a ceremony. You'd dress up, do your makeup, put on something delicate at your wrists and ears... Before stepping through the door you'd take a deep breath, fix your posture and pace, and try to inject some elegance into your usual clumsy movements."

Back then, not everyone knew why they drank coffee, but everyone agreed on one thing: it made them feel different. And especially at Starbucks, nobody drank a single sip before taking a photo first!

The photos went straight to social media, a quiet way of showing off the "luxurious lifestyle" (Starbucks was genuinely expensive then—the prices eight or nine years ago were about what they are today). So even those who didn't really understand coffee had their own reasons for going.

"But now, when friends invite me to a coffee shop, I feel nothing. Honestly, my first thought is: how about I make coffee for you instead? Sadly my place is a mess, so I'd be embarrassed to have guests over.

Coffee shops, to me, have become just a place to chat. That old sense of superiority is gone, because coffee has woven itself into daily life. What I need now is the coffee itself to keep me going—not the check-in, not the performance of a rich life."

The Evolution of Coffee Consumption

When people stop making special trips to coffee shops, it means coffee has truly become part of their lives. The supporting act recedes and the protagonist—the coffee itself—takes the stage. Each stage of coffee's evolution reshuffles how the public consumes it, and only when demand returns to the essence of coffee can the market keep expanding. Consumption is growing at an average of 15% a year, and coffee shops are no longer the main driver of volume.

Drinking coffee anytime, anywhere, at a low and affordable price, with a taste that's good enough—that is why the mass consumer now chooses coffee.

The Rise of Home Coffee Consumption

With the rapid growth of domestic e-commerce and food delivery, fewer people orbit around coffee shops. Special trips are down; more people want a cup anytime without leaving home. Freeze-dried instant coffee, ready-to-drink coffee liquids, and drip bags now dominate coffee sales—and freeze-dried alone accounts for nearly 70% of the Chinese coffee market.

Under the impact of the pandemic, the closure rate for physical coffee shops exceeded 80%. Shops keep opening, but few actually make their living selling coffee, and menu prices have climbed with rising costs.

A cup at a coffee shop is so expensive! But we still need our caffeine... So consumers started making it themselves and ordering beans on e-commerce platforms.

Live-stream commerce and endless promotions have pushed coffee prices to new "lows"—nothing you can't imagine, no price that can't be reached. (Coffee still has real costs, though, so be cautious with coffee that seems suspiciously cheap.)

Beyond e-commerce, delivery has become fiercely competitive too. Open a delivery app and you'll find a dizzying lineup of coffee brands; with merchant discounts stacked on coupons, a delivered coffee can cost less than drinking in-store, no trip required. Affordable, anytime, anywhere coffee is a small blessing for office workers.

Personal Reflections on Coffee Culture

(Back to my friend) "Looking back, I can't believe how generous I was spending tens of yuan on coffee in shops. I thought it made me look like a 'rich person,' and it didn't feel wrong at the time, haha.

But now, even though I can afford more, I rarely think of going out for a cup. Partly because the quality varies so much it doesn't feel worth it; partly because what I actually want is to spend about ten yuan and drink decent coffee anytime, anywhere—so I bought gear and make it myself."

(Just kidding, haha.)

Plenty of people insist that coffee from Luckin and the like "isn't real coffee." Why not? The quality isn't refined, but it's drinkable, and the price is honest. Who puts off a good deal until tomorrow? I don't buy it often—only when I'm short on time or passing by.

I prefer pour-over myself, so I bought a setup and make one or two cups a day. The gear doesn't look cheap, but with daily use, a regular cup costs under ten yuan including beans, and even Geisha comes to about twenty yuan a cup. Making it myself really is worth it!

When I brew at home, whatever feels comfortable goes. I won't spend big on ultra-professional equipment—an ordinary kettle, an ordinary grinder, an ordinary dripper. As long as it gets me through late-night work or shakes off the morning fog, coffee doesn't need to be professional. If I think it's fine, it's fine.

Brewing coffee is really an everyday thing that demands no special talent. It only looks complicated because people treat it that way, as if it were expertise reserved for a chosen few."

The Future of Coffee Consumption

What coffee you drink isn't decided by coffee shops—it's decided by the drinker. The power of discourse in this industry will ultimately return to ordinary consumers. A cup that refreshes you, tastes acceptable, and doesn't cost much is the mass market's answer.

No matter how hard capital competes or how impressive the technology gets, if it can't hold prices down while keeping every cup consistent, consumers will eventually change direction. After all, making a cup of coffee isn't hard. Doing it yourself saves money and you can drink it whenever you like—who wouldn't be tempted?

Image source: Internet

FrontStreet Coffee Recommendation

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If your taste leans smooth and low-acid, the Brazil Cerrado Red Bourbon is the classic daily-drinker: cream, peanut, and cocoa in the cup, gentle acidity, and a soft, balanced body that suits pour-over, French press, or a home espresso machine alike.