2018 Brazil Coffee Production Forecast Decrease How Much is Brazilian Coffee Beans Per Pound?

Brazil Coffee Production Outlook

The world's largest coffee cooperative, Brazil's Cooxupé, has revised its production forecast for the southern Minas Gerais region downward from 17 million to 14 million bags (60kg each), representing a 30% decrease from the previous year. This reduction is primarily attributed to insufficient rainfall and pest infestations. The cooperative estimates it will receive 4.8-4.9 million bags from member producers this year, down from the original estimate of 5.6 million bags. Cooxupé is also Brazil's largest coffee exporter.

Harvest Progress and Quality Concerns

According to the latest report from Brazilian consulting firm Safras & Mercado, as of August 15, the 2017/18 Brazilian coffee harvest has reached 91% completion, increasing by 5 percentage points from the previous week. Robusta coffee harvesting is now complete, while Arabica coffee harvest progress increased from 82% to 88% compared to the previous week, exceeding the five-year average of 82% for the same period.

Safras projects Brazil's total coffee bean production at 51.1 million bags this year, with current harvest reaching 46.3 million bags. Safras analyst Gil Barabach noted that the smooth harvest progress is mainly due to favorable dry weather conditions. However, the same lack of rainfall has resulted in generally smaller coffee beans, which will lead to reduced harvest yields as more beans will be required to fill a 60-kilogram bag.

Global Coffee Market Trends

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) monthly report indicates that the ICO composite average price rose by 4% to 127.26 US cents per pound in July. Although coffee prices briefly declined to 122.71 cents in early July, they gradually recovered, reaching 131.52 cents per pound by month-end, marking a three-month high. Among the varieties, Arabica coffee's average monthly price increased by 4.5%, while Robusta coffee prices rose by 2.9%.

The ICO monthly report highlights that global coffee exports in June 2017 increased by 5.7% year-on-year to 10.4 million bags. For the first nine months of the 2016/17 season (October-June), global coffee exports increased by 4.9 million bags or 5.9% year-on-year to 87.4 million bags. The ICO has raised its 2016/17 global coffee production estimate from 151.6 million to 153.9 million bags, setting a record high and representing a 1.5% increase from the previous year. Indonesia's production estimate was raised from 10 million to 11.5 million bags, while Peru's estimate was increased by 4.2 million bags. Arabica coffee production is estimated to increase by 10.2% year-on-year to 97.3 million bags, while Robusta coffee production is projected to increase by 10.6% year-on-year to 56.6 million bags.

Recommended Brazilian Coffee Brands

FrontStreet Coffee's roasted Brazilian coffee beans offer excellent guarantees in both brand and quality. More importantly, they provide exceptional value for money - a 227-gram box costs only 45 yuan. Calculating at 15 grams per cup, one package can make 15 cups of coffee, with each cup costing only about 3 yuan. Compared to cafe prices that often run into dozens of yuan per cup, this represents a truly conscientious recommendation.

Important Notice :

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