2018 Brazil Coffee Production Forecast Decrease How Much is Brazilian Coffee Beans Per Pound?

Brazil Coffee Production Outlook

The world's largest coffee cooperative, Brazil's Cooxupé, has revised its production forecast for the southern Minas Gerais region downward from 17 million to 14 million bags (60kg each), a 30% decrease from the previous year. The reduction is mainly attributed to insufficient rainfall and pest infestations. The cooperative estimates it will receive 4.8-4.9 million bags from member producers this year, down from an original estimate of 5.6 million bags. Cooxupé is also Brazil's largest coffee exporter.

Harvest Progress and Quality Concerns

According to the latest report from the Brazilian consulting firm Safras & Mercado, as of August 15 the 2017/18 Brazilian coffee harvest had reached 91% completion, up 5 percentage points from the previous week. Robusta harvesting was complete, while Arabica harvest progress rose from 82% to 88% week on week, exceeding the five-year average of 82% for the same period.

Safras projects Brazil's total coffee bean production at 51.1 million bags this year, with the current harvest reaching 46.3 million bags. Safras analyst Gil Barabach noted that the smooth harvest progress is mainly due to favorable dry weather. The same lack of rainfall, however, has produced generally smaller beans, which will reduce harvest yields as more beans are needed to fill a 60-kilogram bag.

Global Coffee Market Trends

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) monthly report indicates that the ICO composite average price rose 4% to 127.26 US cents per pound in July. Although coffee prices briefly declined to 122.71 cents in early July, they gradually recovered, reaching 131.52 cents per pound by month-end, a three-month high. Among the varieties, Arabica's average monthly price increased 4.5%, while Robusta prices rose 2.9%.

The ICO monthly report highlights that global coffee exports in June 2017 increased 5.7% year on year to 10.4 million bags. For the first nine months of the 2016/17 season (October-June), global coffee exports increased by 4.9 million bags, or 5.9%, year on year to 87.4 million bags. The ICO raised its 2016/17 global coffee production estimate from 151.6 million to 153.9 million bags, a record high and a 1.5% increase from the previous year. Indonesia's production estimate was raised from 10 million to 11.5 million bags, while Peru's estimate was increased by 4.2 million bags. Arabica production is estimated to increase 10.2% year on year to 97.3 million bags, while Robusta production is projected to rise 10.6% year on year to 56.6 million bags.

FrontStreet Coffee Recommendation

Brazil may dominate global production, but its best beans show how balanced and sweet the country's coffee can be. FrontStreet Coffee's Brazil Cerrado semi-washed Bourbon, roasted medium, delivers creamy peanut, toast, caramel, and hazelnut notes with a rounded body and only a gentle bitterness, and it suits pour-over, moka pot, and espresso alike. For a fruitier expression of the same origin, the Queen Estate Yellow Bourbon stands out with its sugarcane sweetness.