Brazil Coffee Update: Institutions Predict Brazil's 2021 Coffee Production at 52.01 Million Bags

Brazil Coffee Production Forecast for the 2021/22 Season

2021 is an off-year in Brazil's biennial coffee cycle, and coming on the heels of the 2020 drought, global institutions have been revising their numbers downward. The consensus estimate for Brazil's total 2021/22 coffee production now averages 52.01 million bags (60 kg per bag).

Arabica vs. Robusta

The split between the two species tells two very different stories. Minas Gerais, Brazil's largest Arabica-producing state, took the brunt of last year's drought and is expected to lose 42% of its output this year; the country's other Arabica regions were hit too, if less severely. Institutions put average Arabica production at 32.22 million bags, down 21%–31% year on year.

Robusta went the other way. The drought barely touched Bahia and Espírito Santo, the two main canephora states, and better crop management has pushed average Robusta production up to 19.8 million bags, a gain of 16%–18%.

Arabica Prices Climbing on Tight Supply and Economic Turmoil

Falling production plus the economic instability of COVID-19 means one thing for Brazilian Arabica: prices are expected to keep climbing through 2021.

As Brazil entered winter, the pandemic was worsening again, on March 19 the country logged 90,570 new daily cases, a record since the outbreak began. With the economy under strain and the real continuously depreciating, spot coffee prices have surged. In March, Brazil's domestic Arabica spot price hit a record 740 reais per bag (about $134), and analysts expected the upward trend to hold.

Growing Domestic Consumption, Tighter Export Supply

So will Brazilian Arabica run short as domestic demand grows? Per the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association, Brazil consumed 21.2 million bags domestically between November 2019 and October 2020, up slightly from 20.9 million the year before, and with more people brewing at home, demand for quality Arabica is expected to rise further.

Combine rising home consumption with a smaller 2021/22 Arabica crop, and the arithmetic gets uncomfortable: there may not be enough left after domestic needs to satisfy global traders.

Early Pre-Sales of the 2021/22 Crop

Buyers have clearly read the same tea leaves. By early March, Brazil had pre-sold 28% of its 2021/22 production.

Safras & Consultoria reported that as of March 10, 28% of the crop had been pre-sold, well ahead of 18% at the same point last year, driven chiefly by the severe Arabica reduction. Arabica pre-sales alone had already reached 35%.

FrontStreet Coffee Recommendation

Whatever the commodity market does, Brazil remains the world's largest producer and the backbone of great value coffee. Brazilian beans show moderate acidity and a beautifully balanced sweetness, bitterness, and body, ideal for medium roasts that bring out nutty aromatics, and work as single origin or in blends.

• FrontStreet Cerrado Red Bourbon (pulped natural), the classic way to taste the region. Cerrado is one of Brazil's best-known quality zones; this Red Bourbon, roasted medium, shows cream, peanut, toasted bread, caramel, and hazelnut, with a round, non-acidic body and a light bitterness. Equally happy in pour-over, moka pot, espresso SOE, siphon, or French press.
• FrontStreet Queen Estate Yellow Bourbon, from Mogiana near southern Minas, where rich red volcanic soil feeds full aromatic development, and where traditional farms and modern standardized operations sit side by side. Yellow Bourbon is a mutation of Red Bourbon with a cleaner fruit character; brewed any way you like, it offers a sugarcane sweetness few other origins can match, alongside fruit and chocolate notes.
• FrontStreet espresso blends, low acidity, balance, and friendly pricing make Brazilian coffee the base of many espresso formulas. FrontStreet's Classic Blend (rich crema), Premium Blend (nut-forward), Black Cocoa Blend (a barista favorite), and Commercial Blend (built for cafes) all carry Brazilian content, adding chocolate and cream aromatics, softening the sweet-sour-bitter balance, and stabilizing extraction.