International Arabica Coffee Trading Prices Expected to Rise by Year-End!
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According to a Reuters London survey of 11 traders and analysts on February 2nd: After the market digests the current surplus, Arabica coffee will face a supply shortage next quarter, with prices expected to rise nearly 8% above current levels.
According to the median forecast from survey participants, Arabica coffee prices will reach $1.35 per pound by the end of 2021, representing a 7.7% increase from Monday's (February 1st) closing price and 5.3% higher than year-end 2020 levels.
Brazil's Arabica coffee will enter its biennial low-production cycle in the 2021/22 season. Respondents expect production to decline from 69 million bags in the current season to 55.51 million bags (60kg per bag), which will lead to an 8.5 million bag shortage in the Arabica market next season.
Arabica coffee prices fell 1.1% last year due to Brazil's record total coffee harvest. The impact of Brazil's drought will damage the prospects for the upcoming Arabica coffee production season.
Carlos Mera, an analyst at Rabobank, stated that as vaccine deployment begins to impact virus transmission, the global economy is expected to recover this year, which will help increase coffee consumption.
Survey participants indicated that ICE-certified Arabica coffee inventories declined at the end of 2020, and the recovery in future coffee consumption will help boost prices. However, some also mentioned that the current excess coffee beans in the market will limit price increases.
Robusta coffee prices are expected to reach $1,475 per ton by the end of this year, representing a 10.4% increase from Monday's closing price and a 6.4% rise from the market's year-end 2020 closing price.
According to the median forecast from survey participants, the global Robusta coffee market will remain flat this quarter, with a surplus of 950,000 bags next quarter. Vietnam, the world's largest Robusta coffee producer, is expected to produce 28.8 million bags this season, below the USDA's estimated 31.3 million bags for the 2019/20 season.
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