Climate Change Affects the Yield and Quality of Ethiopian Yirgacheffe Premium Coffee Beans

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Climate Change Threatens Ethiopia's Premium Coffee Production

A new study conducted by an international research team shows that climate change is affecting Ethiopia, Africa's largest coffee-producing country! In the future, Ethiopia's premium coffee beans will face continuous production declines, with increasingly bland flavors.

Mixed Impact on Coffee Growing Regions

Researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), who conducted the study, stated: "Climate change will bring mixed results for Ethiopian coffee. According to the institute's simulation experiments, by 2090, areas suitable for growing commercial coffee beans may gradually expand. However, if climate change in Ethiopia continues to worsen, the regions suitable for growing premium Ethiopian coffee may gradually shrink."

Research Methodology and Findings

Researchers studied and analyzed five different local coffee varieties in Ethiopia under various scenario simulations, based on 19 weather factors including average temperature, annual rainfall, and seasonality. The research shows that if local temperatures in Ethiopia continue to warm, coffee cherries will mature increasingly faster. Due to the lack of diurnal temperature variation to slow down the maturation process, the time for coffee cherries to develop more flavors is shortened, which not only affects the quality of coffee cherries but also impacts the flavor profile of coffee beans.

Impact of Rainfall on Coffee Production

On the other hand, increased rainfall generally benefits the yield of commercial coffee beans, but may not necessarily be good for premium coffee beans. Continuous rainfall can severely impact premium coffee-producing regions. In the worst-case scenario, the Yirgacheffe region could see a 40% reduction in cultivation area by the end of the 21st century.

Economic Consequences for Ethiopian Coffee Farmers

In addition to affecting the yield and quality of premium Ethiopian coffee, climate change will also impact Ethiopia's coffee economy. Researchers indicate that if Ethiopian coffee regions cannot produce high-quality coffee due to climate change, it could have severe consequences for small farmers in the area. Once they switch to growing commercial coffee, their competitors will be large-scale enterprises—such as coffee plantations in Brazil and Vietnam, where lower costs drive down sales prices. For a country where coffee exports account for approximately one-third of agricultural exports, this could be devastating.

Potential Solutions and Adaptation Strategies

However, researchers involved in this study also mentioned that these findings represent a worst-case prediction, and there are still ways to prevent the deteriorating trend. Now that we understand how different coffee varieties are affected by factors such as temperature, space, and soil, we can plan corresponding measures for each region based on different changes, thereby improving the impacts brought by these changes.

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